Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when we focus on the people or things that have survived or been successful, while overlooking those that have failed or ceased to exist. This bias can lead to inaccurate conclusions and flawed decision-making, as it creates a distorted view of reality. The term “survivorship bias” was first coined by statistician Francis Galton in the late 19th century, but it wasn’t until the 20th century that the concept gained widespread attention. Today, survivorship bias is recognized as a significant issue in various fields, including business, medicine, and social sciences.
What is Survivorship Bias?
Survivorship bias is a type of selection bias that arises when we selectively focus on the survivors or successes, while ignoring the failures or non-survivors. This can happen in many areas, such as in business, where we might look at successful companies and try to identify the factors that contributed to their success, while neglecting to consider the companies that failed. Similarly, in medicine, we might focus on patients who have recovered from a disease, while overlooking those who did not.
Examples of Survivorship Bias
There are many examples of survivorship bias in real-life situations. For instance, during World War II, the British Royal Air Force (RAF) noticed that their planes were returning from missions with more damage to certain areas, such as the wings and tail sections. The RAF decided to add more armor to these areas, but a statistician named Abraham Wald pointed out that this approach was flawed. Wald argued that the planes that had returned were not representative of all the planes that had gone on the missions, as the planes that had been shot down were not included in the analysis. Instead, the RAF should have added more armor to the areas where the returning planes had little or no damage, as these areas were likely to be more vulnerable.
Effects of Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias can have significant effects on our perceptions and decision-making. By focusing on the survivors or successes, we can create an overly optimistic view of reality, which can lead to poor decision-making. For example, if we look at the stock market and see that a particular investment has consistently performed well, we might assume that it is a good investment. However, if we fail to consider the investments that have failed, we might be ignoring important warning signs.
Avoiding Survivorship Bias
To avoid survivorship bias, it’s essential to consider the full range of data, including both the successes and the failures. This can involve seeking out diverse perspectives and considering alternative explanations for the data. Additionally, it’s crucial to recognize the limitations of our own experiences and to be aware of the potential for bias in our decision-making. By taking a more nuanced and comprehensive approach, we can reduce the impact of survivorship bias and make more informed decisions.
In conclusion, survivorship bias is a pervasive cognitive bias that can have significant effects on our perceptions and decision-making. By understanding the concept of survivorship bias and taking steps to avoid it, we can make more informed decisions and gain a more accurate view of reality. Whether in business, medicine, or other areas, recognizing the potential for survivorship bias can help us to become more critical thinkers and to make better choices.
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